The decision to introduce new technology: The fuzzy preliminary selection decision support problem

In the early stages of the design of large scale engineering systems, understandably, very little is known about the specific details of the system being designed, that is, specific knowledge about the system being designed is uncertain or fuzzy. Even the requirements for the system may be unclear. On the other hand, decisions must be made and these decisions will have far reaching effects on the cost and effectiveness of the system. Here the effects of uncertainty or fuzziness on preliminary selection decisions are discussed; situations in which one concept or groups of concepts is technically less certain than others are particularly interesting, this may occur when some concepts are based on new, untested technology. The present model is based on the principles embodied in fuzzy set theory and are incorporated in a procedure for preliminary selection of concepts to be investigated further, namely, the preliminary selection Decision Support Problem (DSP). The emphasis is primarily on the method, but is illustrated with the preliminary selection of a concept for a drilling rig for the North Sea.