Ungauged runoff simulation in Upper Manyame Catchment, Zimbabwe: Application of the HEC-HMS model

The Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS) model was applied to simulate runoff in the ten gauged and ungauged Upper Manyame subcatchments in Zimbabwe. Remote sensing and Geographic Information System techniques were used to determine the geometric and hydrologic parameters required for estimating model parameters. The Snyder Unit Hydrograph method was used for ungauged subcatchment simulations based on parameter transfer from gauged subcatchments. The Marimba and Mukuvisi subcatchments were considered as the gauged subcatchments based on data completeness for the simulation period (2004-2010). Before extrapolating the calibrated model setup to eight ungauged subcatchments, the feasibility of model parameter transferability was tested, using the proxy - catchment approach and evaluated using the Nash Sutcliffe (NSE) and Relative Volume Error (RVE) criterion. Results showed that the model successfully predicted gauged catchment runoff and peakflows for the calibration (Marimba NSE = 68%, RVE = 5.8%; Mukuvisi NSE = 64%, RVE = -8.9%) and validation (Marimba NSE = 61%, RVE = 8.1%; Mukuvisi NSE = 57%, RVE = 9.9%) periods. The study demonstrates the suitability of HEC-HMS for continuous runoff simulation in a complex watershed with numerous subcatchments and channel reaches. The ungauged subcatchments contribute to 51% of Upper Manyame Catchment's runoff. Ruwa and Lake Chivero sub catchments had the highest ungauged subcatchment contribution to Upper Manyame Catchment runoff (19% and 15% respectively). This work will have a significant contribution for the future development of water resources programs in Upper Manyame Catchment in particular and in other data-scarce catchments. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.