Relating residential and commercial sector electricity loads to climate - evaluating state level sensitivities and vulnerabilities

A methodology for relating climate parameters to electricity consumption at regional scales has been applied to eight states resulting in predictive models of per capita residential and commercial electricity consumption. In isolating residential and commercial consumption these models allow for detailed analyses of urban electricity demand and its vulnerabilities to climate change at regional scales. Model sensitivities to climate perturbations and specific climate change scenarios have been investigated providing first-order estimates of how electricity demand may respond to climatic changes, The results indicate a wide range of electricity demand impacts, with one state experiencing decreased loads associated with climate warming, but the others experiencing a significant increase in annual per capita residential and commercial electricity consumption. The results indicate significantly different sensitivities for neighboring states, suggesting the inability to generalize results. In the long run the non-climatic factors responsible for these differences must be incorporated into the model structure, and assessments of changes in market saturation and related factors need to be included to make it amenable to long range forecasting. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.