Impacts of climate change and CO2 increase on agricultural production and adaptation options for Southern Quebec, Canada

被引:20
作者
Brassard, Jean-Phillipe [2 ]
Singh, Bhawan [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Montreal, Dept Geog, Montreal, PQ H3C 3J7, Canada
[2] McGill Univ, Dept Econ, Montreal, PQ H3A 2T7, Canada
基金
加拿大自然科学与工程研究理事会;
关键词
Climate change; Agriculture; CO2; fertilization; Impacts; Adaptation; Canada;
D O I
10.1007/s11027-007-9109-2
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
This study involves the assessment of the potential impacts of greenhouse gas climate change and changing ambient carbon dioxide (CO2) levels on crop yields in Quebec, Canada. The methodology involves coupling the transient diagnostics of two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models, namely the Canadian CGCM1 and the British HadCM3, to the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) 3.5 crop models to simulate current (1961-1990) and future (2040-2069) crop yields and changes. This is done for four different crop species, namely spring wheat, maize, soybean, and potato, and for seven agricultural regions of Southern Quebec. The results of this study focus on the main causative factors influencing crop yields, namely the direct CO2 fertilization effect, the influence of the increase in growing season temperature, including optimal thermal conditions and acceleration in crop maturation, soil moisture availability, as influenced by precipitation and evapotranspiration, and nitrogen uptake by crops. Our results show that crop yield changes may vary according to climate scenario, crop species, and agricultural region. Consistent with other similar research, it would seem that these multiple causative factors very often seem to cancel each other out and dilute the impacts of climate change on crop yields.
引用
收藏
页码:241 / 265
页数:25
相关论文
共 61 条
[11]   Maize growth:: assessing the effects of global warming and CO2 fertilization with crop models [J].
Dhakhwa, GB ;
Campbell, CL ;
LeDuc, SK ;
Cooter, EJ .
AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY, 1997, 87 (04) :253-272
[12]   Impact of climate change and variability on irrigation requirements:: A global perspective [J].
Döll, P .
CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2002, 54 (03) :269-293
[13]   The effects of climatic change and CO2 fertilisation on agriculture in Quebec [J].
ElMaayar, M ;
Singh, B ;
Andre, P ;
Bryant, CR ;
Thouez, JP .
AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY, 1997, 85 (3-4) :193-208
[14]   Effects on nutrients and on grain quality in spring wheat crops grown under elevated CO2 concentrations and stress conditions in the European, multiple-site experiment 'ESPACE-wheat' [J].
Fangmeier, A ;
De Temmerman, L ;
Mortensen, L ;
Kemp, K ;
Burke, J ;
Mitchell, R ;
van Oijen, M ;
Weigel, HJ .
EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY, 1999, 10 (3-4) :215-229
[15]   The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis global coupled model and its climate [J].
Flato, GM ;
Boer, GJ ;
Lee, WG ;
McFarlane, NA ;
Ramsden, D ;
Reader, MC ;
Weaver, AJ .
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2000, 16 (06) :451-467
[16]  
Godwin DC, 1998, SYST APPR S, V7, P55
[17]   The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments [J].
Gordon, C ;
Cooper, C ;
Senior, CA ;
Banks, H ;
Gregory, JM ;
Johns, TC ;
Mitchell, JFB ;
Wood, RA .
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2000, 16 (2-3) :147-168
[18]   GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE - MODELING THE POTENTIAL RESPONSES OF AGROECOSYSTEMS WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO CROP PROTECTION [J].
GOUDRIAAN, J ;
ZADOKS, JC .
ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION, 1995, 87 (02) :215-224
[19]  
Griffin T.S., 1993, RES REPORT SERIES U, V02
[20]   Growth and yield potential of spring wheat in a simulated changed climate with increased CO2 and higher temperature [J].
Hakala, K .
EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY, 1998, 9 (01) :41-52