Structural damage to housing and effects on users due to seismic risk: a case study

A probabilistic risk assessment is presented for earthquakes in the northwest of the Mexican state of Baja California. Six seismic sources are considered for determining the seismic hazard, and vulnerability and exposure are associated with the structural integrity of one- and two-storey houses and the population density of their users. The risk assessment is based on the Central America probabilistic risk assessment model. The impact estimate is performed for the two most-populated cities in Baja California, namely Mexicali and Tijuana. The results show that for earthquakes with magnitudes of M-w = 6.4-7.2 and return periods of up to 100 years, 2850 people are affected on average, with economic losses of US$144 million.