A real option model for geothermal heating investment decision making: Considering carbon trading and resource taxes

被引:23
作者
Yu, Shiwei [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Li, Zhenxi [1 ]
Wei, Yi-Ming [3 ]
Liu, Lancui [4 ]
机构
[1] China Univ Geosci, Ctr Energy & Environm Management & Decis Making, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, Peoples R China
[2] China Univ Geosci, Sch Econ & Management, Wuhan 430074, Hubei, Peoples R China
[3] Beijing Inst Technol, Ctr Energy & Environm Policy Res, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
[4] Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Business, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
Real option; Carbon trading; Resources tax; Geothermal heating project; Bidimensional binominal lattice; ENERGY-POLICY EVALUATION; RENEWABLE ENERGY; POWER-GENERATION; WIND POWER; SYSTEM; CHINA; TECHNOLOGY; PERFORMANCE; SIMULATION; DYNAMICS;
D O I
10.1016/j.energy.2019.116252
中图分类号
O414.1 [热力学];
学科分类号
摘要
By considering carbon trading and resource tax, this study established a bidimensional binominal lattice of a compound real option pricing model to help investors make decisions for geothermal heating projects. Two types of real options, to defer and to abandon, are simultaneously considered. Further, a case study on the decision making for a geothermal heating project in the Xiongan New Area in China was conducted to verify the feasibility of the proposed model. The results show that 1) the investors should delay the "invest-decision" at least one year under the real option rule but that investment value would at least 0.9 times more than that by the net present value method; 2) different subsidies methods could influence the investment time and project value, and one-time subsidies may lead to larger project value but delay the investment time; 3) The project value could be increased by conducting carbon trading but could be reduced by resource tax implementation; and 4) the value of option to defer is negatively sensitive to the initial fossil fuel price, but the value of the option to abandon is positively sensitive to the volatility of carbon price. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页数:11
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