Assessment of H5N1 HPAI risk and the importance of wild birds

The role of wild birds in the transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 is still unclear. Risk-assessment techniques can be used to identify the most important epidemiological mechanisms potentially leading to transmission to domestic poultry and to synthesize existing knowledge as risk estimates with associated uncertainty. As an example, a qualitative risk assessment was conducted by the European Food Safety Authority at the request of the European Commission to determine the risk of introduction of the virus through migratory wild birds into the European Union. Further techniques that can be used to inform risk management include quantitative risk factor analyses as well as simulation modeling.