Cognitive and motivational factors influencing time prediction

Cognitive and motivational processes underlying time prediction were studied in 5 experiments, Experiments 1-4 tested several debiasing techniques including decomposition, surprises, multiple scenarios (optimistic, best guess, pessimistic), anchoring and adjustment, social prediction, encoding (familiarity), and task performance delay. None of the manipulations resulted in significantly different predictions. Experiment 5 tested the effect of financial incentives. Contrary to expectations, participants given financial incentives for speed gave shorter predictions but performed the task no more quickly than those without Incentives. Participants were motivated to be wishful thinkers brit not more capable doers. Three practical implications result: (a) Formal prediction methods may not be as accurate as assumed, (b) social forecasting is not necessarily a prediction panacea, and (c) those who schedule tasks should pay particular attention to actors' motivations.