Flows, Stock, and Emissions of Poly- and Perfluoroalkyl Substances in California Carpet in 2000-2030 under Different Scenarios

In this study, we present a holistic analysis of the stock and emissions of poly- and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in California carpet in 2000-2030. Our high estimate is that, in 2017, the total PFAS accumulated in in-use carpet stock and landfilled carpet are similar to 60 and similar to 120 tonnes, respectively, and the resultant PFAS emissions are similar to 800 and similar to 100 kg, respectively. Among the three subclasses (side-chain polymers, PFAA, and nonpolymeric precursors), side-chain polymers dominate the in-use stock and landfill accumulation, while nonpolymeric precursors dominate the resultant emissions. Our low estimate is typically 8-15% of the high estimate and follows similar trends and subclass breakdowns as the high estimate. California's new Carpet Stewardship Regulations (24% recycling of end-of-life carpet) will reduce the landfilled PFAS by 6% (7 tonnes) at the cost of increasing the in-use stock by 2% (2 tonnes) in 2030. Aggressive PFAS phase-out by carpet manufacturers (i.e., reduce PFAS use by 15% annually starting 2020) could reduce the in-use PFAS stock by 50% by 2030, but its impact on the total landfilled PFAS is limited. The shift toward short-chain PFAS will also significantly reduce the in-use stock of long-chain PFAS in carpet by 2030 (only 25% of the total PFAS will be long-chain). Among the data gaps identified, a key one is the current area-based PFAS emission reporting (i.e., g PFAS emitted/area carpet/time), which leads to the counterintuitive result that reducing the PFAS use in carpet production has no impact on the PFAS emissions from in-use stock and landfills. Future technical studies should either confirm this or consider a mass-based unit (e.g., g PFAS emitted/g PFAS used/time) for better integration into regional substance flow analysis. Other noticeable data gaps include the lack of time-series data on emissions from the in-use stock and on leaching of side-chain polymers from landfills.