Prospective study of the link between overweight/obesity and diabetes incidence among Mexican older adults: 2001-2012

Objective. To prospectively assess the relationship between overweight/obesity and incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) among Mexicans aged 50+, assessing effects of age, genetic predisposition, education, physical activity, and place of residence. Materials and methods. The Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS) was used to prospectively follow respondents free of diabetes in 2001 who became diabetic by 2012. Multivariate random effects logistic regression was used to assess covariates effects on the incidence of T2DM. Results. Obese or overweight individuals at baseline (2001) were about 3 and 2 times, respectively, significantly more likely to become diabetic by 2012. Genetic predisposition increases the risk of diabetes by about three times compared to those with no family history of diabetes. Conclusion. Overweight/obesity and genetic predisposition are the primary drivers of diabetes incidence among Mexican older adults. Reducing body weight and having access to health care may ameliorate the disease burden of T2DM.