PREDICTING POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION OF PRICKLY JUNIPER (Juniperus oxycedrus L.) IN THE MEDITERRANEAN REGION OF TURKEY

Prickly juniper (Juniperus oxycedrus L.) is ecologically significant species in the sites with stony, rocky and shallow soil conditions with characteristic arid and semi-arid climatic properties of the Mediterranean basin. Especially in degraded forest areas, it has important functions such as preventing the soil from being exposed to erosion against the rainfall. Apart from these, it is known that this species has many ecosystem functions for the global climate balance, industrial and firewood product and the medical-aromatic plant properties. However, this species has been severely damaged in the nature from past to the present day, due to overgrazing, industrial activities and human impact. It is therefore important to estimate the potential distribution areas for the sustainability of this species. In the light of this information, it is aimed to model and map these potential distribution areas of this species in the natural forest sites. Presence and absence data of this species were recorded in a total of 185 sample areas in the Stitculer district in the Mediterranean region. The data for climate and topographic variables are obtained from the digital map of the locality. Generalized Additive Model (GAM) is used to estimate the potential distribution areas of the species. The variables that constitute the representative model of the potential distribution areas are elevation and bedrock formations, respectively. Locations with elevations between 1000 m and 1500 m in the district have been the most suitable areas for potential distribution of the species. On the other hand, conglomerate type bedrock has been found to play a more effective role for the potential distribution of the species than the other bedrock types.