Low-trauma ankle fractures in Brazil: secular trends in patients over 50 years old from 2004 to 2013

Purpose The most common sites of low-energy trauma fractures are the femur, vertebra, humerus, and forearm. Ankle fractures have significant morbidity and high costs for surgical procedure. Forearm fractures are common nonvertebral fractures. Forearm fractures are classified as fragility fractures and predictive for fractures at other sites, although do not allow osteoporosis diagnosis. It is controversial whether ankle fractures are osteoporosis fractures. Methods Retrospective observational study, with secular trend analysis, in patients over 50 years old admitted in the Brazilian Public Health System, from 2004 to 2013. We collected hospitalization data according to the ICD-10 for low-trauma ankle and forearm fractures. Fracture rate was calculated according to gender, age, and geographic region, performed linear regression analysis, and estimated fracture rates for 2030. Comparison of ankle and forearm rates was also performed, grouping them in 3-year block. ANOVA test was used to compare each block. Results Ankle fracture rate was 21.39 fractures per 100,000 inhabitants, 23.98 in females and 18.49 in males. Fracture rates were higher in the South and Southeast regions. In absolute numbers, although ankle fracture rate increased with age, there was a significant decrease in the population over 80 years old. Data showed stabilization in ankle fractures from 2004 to 2013, in women and men. In 3-year block analysis, men had higher ankle fracture rates than forearm. However, in women, forearm rates were higher than ankle. Conclusion Our data suggest that ankle fractures in men would be considered as a sentinel fracture with a similar clinical impact of forearm fracture.