Economic Assessment of Permafrost Degradation Effects on Healthcare Facilities in the Russian Arctic

被引：7

作者：

Porfiriev, B. N. ^{[1
]}

Eliseev, D. O. ^{[1
,2
]}

Streletskiy, D. A. ^{[3
,4
]}

机构：

[1] Russian Acad Sci, Inst Econ Forecasting, Moscow, Russia

[2] Russian New Univ RosNOU, Moscow, Russia

[3] George Washington Univ, Washington, DC 20052 USA

[4] Russian Acad Sci, Inst Earths Cryosphere, Siberian Branch, Tyumen Sci Ctr, Tyumen, Russia

来源：

HERALD OF THE RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES | 2021年 / 91卷 / 06期

基金：

俄罗斯基础研究基金会;

关键词：

Russian Arctic; climate change; permafrost; thawing; degradation; healthcare facilities; risks; CLIMATE-CHANGE; INFRASTRUCTURE;

D O I：

10.1134/S1019331621060113

中图分类号：

N09 [自然科学史]; B [哲学、宗教];

学科分类号：

01 ; 0101 ; 010108 ; 060207 ; 060305 ; 0712 ;

摘要：

The methodology and results of economic assessment and forecasting of the consequences of the most negative global climate change IPCC scenario (RCP 8.5) representative for the conditions of the Russian Arctic in the form of thawing and degradation of permafrost for healthcare facilities in eight Arctic regions of the Russian Federation are discussed. It is shown that the additional costs associated with these consequences for the maintenance and restoration of healthcare facilities in 2021-2050 may amount to about (sic)60 bln, or about (sic)2 bln per year (in 2021 prices) at the average rate of permafrost degradation and increase thawing depth, rising to (sic)219 bln ((sic)7.5 bln annually) under the maximum expected damage.

引用

页码：677 / 686

页数：10

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