Risk factors for treatment-refractory and relapsed optic pathway glioma in children with neurofibromatosis type 1

Background Nearly one-third of patients with neurofibromatosis type 1-associated optic pathway glioma (NF1-OPG) fail frontline chemotherapy; however, little is known about risk factors for treatment failure. Methods We performed a retrospective multi-institutional cohort study to identify baseline risk factors for treatment-refractory/relapsed disease and poor visual outcome in children with NF1-OPG. Refractory/relapsed NF1-OPG was defined as a requirement of two or more treatment regimens due to progression or relapse. Results Of 111 subjects eligible for inclusion, adequate clinical and visual data were available for 103 subjects from 7 institutions. Median follow-up from the initiation of first chemotherapy regimen was 95 months (range 13-185). Eighty-four (82%) subjects received carboplatin-based frontline chemotherapy. Forty-five subjects (44%) experienced refractory/relapsed disease, with a median time of 21.5 months (range 2-149) from the initiation of first treatment to the start of second treatment. The proportion of patients without refractory/relapsed disease at 2 and 5 years was 78% and 60%. In multivariable analyses, age less than 24 months at initial treatment, posterior tumor location, and familial inheritance were associated with refractory/relapsed NF1-OPG by 2 years. Both age less than 24 months and posterior tumor location were associated with refractory/relapsed NF1-OPG by 5 years. Subjects with moderate to severe vision loss at last follow-up were more likely to have posterior tumor location, optic disc abnormalities, or abnormal visual acuity at initial treatment. Conclusion Young age, posterior tumor location, and optic disc abnormalities may identify patients with the greatest likelihood of refractory/relapsed NF1-OPG and poor visual outcomes, and who may benefit from newer treatment strategies.