Quantifying the evolution of individual scientific impact

被引：462

作者：

Sinatra, Roberta ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Wang, Dashun ^{[4
,5
]}

Deville, Pierre ^{[1
,2
,6
]}

Song, Chaoming ^{[7
]}

Barabasi, Albert-Laszlo ^{[1
,2
,8
,9
,10
]}

机构：

[1] Northeastern Univ, Ctr Complex Network Res, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[2] Northeastern Univ, Dept Phys, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[3] Cent European Univ, Ctr Network Sci & Math Dept, Budapest, Hungary

[4] Northwestern Univ, Kellogg Sch Management, Evanston, IL 60208 USA

[5] Northwestern Univ, Northwestern Inst Complex Syst, Evanston, IL 60208 USA

[6] Catholic Univ Louvain, Dept Appl Math, Louvain La Neuve, Belgium

[7] Univ Miami, Dept Phys, Coral Gables, FL 33124 USA

[8] Harvard Med Sch, Brigham & Womens Hosp, Dept Med, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[9] Cent European Univ, Ctr Network Sci, Budapest, Hungary

[10] Dana Farber Canc Inst, Ctr Canc Syst Biol, Boston, MA 02115 USA

来源：

SCIENCE | 2016年 / 354卷 / 6312期

关键词：

SCIENCE; CAREER; UNIVERSALITY; PERFORMANCE; CREATIVITY; LANDMARKS; METRICS; AUTHOR; TEAMS; MODEL;

D O I：

10.1126/science.aaf5239

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Despite the frequent use of numerous quantitative indicators to gauge the professional impact of a scientist, little is known about how scientific impact emerges and evolves in time. Here, we quantify the changes in impact and productivity throughout a career in science, finding that impact, as measured by influential publications, is distributed randomly within a scientist's sequence of publications. This random-impact rule allows us to formulate a stochastic model that uncouples the effects of productivity, individual ability, and luck and unveils the existence of universal patterns governing the emergence of scientific success.The model assigns a unique individual parameter Q to each scientist, which is stable during a career, and it accurately predicts the evolution of a scientist's impact, from the h-index to cumulative citations, and independent recognitions, such as prizes. Copyright © 2016 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

引用

页数：8

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