Advancements in decadal climate predictability: The role of nonoceanic drivers

被引:75
作者
Bellucci, A. [1 ]
Haarsma, R. [2 ]
Bellouin, N. [3 ]
Booth, B. [4 ]
Cagnazzo, C. [5 ]
van den Hurk, B. [2 ]
Keenlyside, N. [6 ]
Koenigk, T. [7 ]
Massonnet, F. [8 ]
Materia, S. [1 ]
Weiss, M. [2 ]
机构
[1] Ctr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, Bologna, Italy
[2] Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst, NL-3730 AE De Bilt, Netherlands
[3] Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England
[4] Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England
[5] CNR, Ist Sci Atmosfera & Clima, Rome, Italy
[6] Univ Bergen, Geophys Inst, Bergen, Norway
[7] Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, S-60176 Norrkoping, Sweden
[8] Catholic Univ Louvain, Louvain La Neuve, Belgium
关键词
decadal predictability; decadal variability; climate prediction; Earth system models; ANTARCTIC SEA-ICE; ATMOSPHERE COUPLING EXPERIMENT; ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION; QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION; GREAT SALINITY ANOMALIES; SOLAR-CYCLE VARIABILITY; BLACK CARBON AEROSOLS; ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON; SOIL-MOISTURE MEMORY; VEGETATION LEAF-AREA;
D O I
10.1002/2014RG000473
中图分类号
P3 [地球物理学]; P59 [地球化学];
学科分类号
0708 ; 070902 ;
摘要
We review recent progress in understanding the role of sea ice, land surface, stratosphere, and aerosols in decadal-scale predictability and discuss the perspectives for improving the predictive capabilities of current Earth system models (ESMs). These constituents have received relatively little attention because their contribution to the slow climatic manifold is controversial in comparison to that of the large heat capacity of the oceans. Furthermore, their initialization as well as their representation in state-of-the-art climate models remains a challenge. Numerous extraoceanic processes that could be active over the decadal range are proposed. Potential predictability associated with the aforementioned, poorly represented, and scarcely observed constituents of the climate system has been primarily inspected through numerical simulations performed under idealized experimental settings. The impact, however, on practical decadal predictions, conducted with realistically initialized full-fledged climate models, is still largely unexploited. Enhancing initial-value predictability through an improved model initialization appears to be a viable option for land surface, sea ice, and, marginally, the stratosphere. Similarly, capturing future aerosol emission storylines might lead to an improved representation of both global and regional short-term climatic changes. In addition to these factors, a key role on the overall predictive ability of ESMs is expected to be played by an accurate representation of processes associated with specific components of the climate system. These act as signal carriers, transferring across the climatic phase space the information associated with the initial state and boundary forcings, and dynamically bridging different (otherwise unconnected) subsystems. Through this mechanism, Earth system components trigger low-frequency variability modes, thus extending the predictability beyond the seasonal scale.
引用
收藏
页码:165 / 202
页数:38
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