Relationships between climate variability and radial growth of Nothofagus pumilio near altitudinal treeline in the Andes of northern Patagonia, Chile

Global warming is expected to enhance radial tree growth at alpine treeline sites worldwide. We developed a well-replicated tree-ring chronology from Nothofagus pumilio near treeline in a high precipitation climate on Choshuenco Volcano (40 degrees S) in Chile to examine: (a) variation in tree radial growth in relation to interannual climatic variability; and (b) relationships of radial growth to variability in El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) at interannual and decadal time scales. A tree-ring chronology based on 99 tree-ring series from 80 N. pumilio trees near treeline showed a high series intercorrelation (0.48) indicating a strong common environmental signal. Radial growth is negatively correlated with precipitation in late spring (November-December). Temperature and tree growth are positively correlated during late spring and early summer (November-January). Interannual variability in both seasonal climate and in tree growth is strongly teleconnected to ENSO and AAO variability. Radial growth of N. pumilio in this humid high-elevation forest does not show a positive trend over the past half century as predicted from global treeline theory and broadscale warming in the Patagonian-Andean region. Instead, tree growth increased sharply from the 1960s to a peak in the early 1980s but subsequently declined for c. 30 years to its lowest level in >100 years. The shift to higher radial growth after c. 1976 coincides with a shift towards warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific which in turn are associated with warmer growing season temperatures. The decline in tree growth since the mid-1990s is coincident with the increasingly positive phase of the AA0 and high spring precipitation periods associated with El Nino conditions. The recent shift towards reduced growth of N. pumilio at this humid high-elevation site coincident with rising MO mirrors the reduced tree growth beginning in the 1960s for trees growing in relatively xeric, lower elevation sites throughout the Patagonian-Andean region. The current study indicates that N. pumilio growth response in humid high-elevation environments to recent broad-scale warming has been non-linear, and that MO and ENSO are key climatic forcings of tree growth variability. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.