Differences in railway strategies: The empirical case of private, public-owned, and third-sector railways in Tokyo

The incorporation of public transport systems, particularly railway systems, into urban plans has been suggested as a good practice recommendation for decades. The business strategy for railway network expansion can account on the existing travel demand, the envisioned or the planned travel demand. This paper aims to explore the railway business strategy impact on population growth. An empirical assessment of the influence that business strategies of railway network expansions have on population growth is presented, by examining distinct types of business models (private-owned, public-owned, and third sector) and population growth in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area during 1970-2015, according to lag effects. Road expressways and subways were also considered. The research hypothesis states that railways with distinct business models may find different patterns of rail and land co-development. A panel-correlated standard errors model was used to examine the lagged effects, assessing three lag periods (5, 10, and 15-years). According to the findings, generally, but not consistently, private-owned, that diversified business, and third sector railways were positively associated, whereas public-owned railways were negatively associated with the population growth. The lag period assessment found inconsistent results except in private-owned railways during 1970-1990 with the 5-year lag having the greatest effect on population growth, except in the prefecture of Saitama.