Risk-adjusted analysis of early mortality after ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm repair

Purpose: Ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (RAAAs) continue to result in early mortality in up to 50% of patients. Additionally, it remains difficult to compare outcomes given the variability in patient comorbidities and presentation. The purpose of this study was to describe an instrument that permits the prospective analysis of outcomes after RAAA repair while adjusting for the variability in preoperative risk. Methods: Consecutive patients undergoing attempted open RAAA repair over a 5-year period (1999 to 2003) at our center were reviewed. Thirty-day or in-hospital mortality was the main outcome variable. Preoperative mortality risk was estimated for each patient by using a validated modification of the POSSUM scoring system (V-POSSUM). A risk-adjusted cumulative sum method (RA-CUSUM) was used to compare observed versus predicted outcomes by assigning a risk-adjusted score, based on log-likelihood ratios, to each patient. These scores were sequentially plotted with preset control limits to allow for "signaling" when results were substantially different from expected (doubling or halving of odds ratios). Results: A total of 136 patients were reviewed, with an early mortality rate of 45.6%. V-POSSUM scores were accurate in predicting mortality for the entire cohort, with an observed-to-predicted mortality ratio of 0.92 (P = .80). Each patient's risk-adjusted score was plotted sequentially. In one segment of the resulting plot, the graph adopted a negative slope and crossed the lower control limit, indicating improved results compared with predicted. Conclusions: V-POSSUM scores in this series accurately predicted early mortality after RAAA surgery. The RA-CUSUM method allows for the prospective evaluation of outcomes, while taking into account patient variability. In the current study, this resulted in the identification of a series of patients who had improved outcomes compared with predicted.