Future Changes of Summer Monsoon Characteristics and Evaporative Demand Over Asia in CMIP6 Simulations

被引：131
作者：
Ha, Kyung-Ja [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Moon, Suyeon [1 ,2 ]
Timmermann, Axel [1 ,4 ]
Kim, Daeha [5 ]
机构：
[1] Inst Basic Sci, Ctr Climate Phys, Busan, South Korea
[2] Pusan Natl Univ, Dept Climate Syst, Busan, South Korea
[3] Pusan Natl Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, Busan, South Korea
[4] Pusan Natl Univ, Busan, South Korea
[5] APEC Climate Ctr, Climate Applict Dept, Busan, South Korea
来源：
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2020年 / 47卷 / 08期
基金：
新加坡国家研究基金会;
关键词：
CMIP6; monsoon season; monsoon duration; extremes; Asian regional monsoons; CLIMATE-CHANGE; TERRESTRIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; EXTREME PRECIPITATION; ONSET; TEMPERATURE; PROJECTIONS; ANOMALIES; MOISTURE; CONTEXT;
D O I：
10.1029/2020GL087492
中图分类号：
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号：
07 ;
摘要：
Future greenhouse warming is expected to influence the characteristics of global monsoon systems. However, large regional uncertainties still remain. Here we use 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to determine how the length of the summer rainy season and precipitation extremes over the Asian summer monsoon domain will change in response to greenhouse warming. Over East Asia the models simulate on average on the earlier onset and later retreat; whereas over India, the retreat will occur later. The model simulations also show an intensification of extreme rainfall events, as well as an increase of seasonal drought conditions. These results demonstrate the high volatility of the Asian summer monsoon systems and further highlight the need for improved water management strategies in this densely populated part of the world.
引用
收藏
页数：10
相关论文
共 49 条
[1]  
Alexander LV, 2014, CLIMATE CHANGE 2013: THE PHYSICAL SCIENCE BASIS, P3
[2]   CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE REGULATION OF THE SURFACE MOISTURE AND ENERGY BUDGETS [J].
BOER, GJ .
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 1993, 8 (05) :225-239
[3]   A generalized complementary principle with physical constraints for land-surface evaporation [J].
Brutsaert, Wilfried .
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2015, 51 (10) :8087-8093
[4]   The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system [J].
Dee, D. P. ;
Uppala, S. M. ;
Simmons, A. J. ;
Berrisford, P. ;
Poli, P. ;
Kobayashi, S. ;
Andrae, U. ;
Balmaseda, M. A. ;
Balsamo, G. ;
Bauer, P. ;
Bechtold, P. ;
Beljaars, A. C. M. ;
van de Berg, L. ;
Bidlot, J. ;
Bormann, N. ;
Delsol, C. ;
Dragani, R. ;
Fuentes, M. ;
Geer, A. J. ;
Haimberger, L. ;
Healy, S. B. ;
Hersbach, H. ;
Holm, E. V. ;
Isaksen, L. ;
Kallberg, P. ;
Koehler, M. ;
Matricardi, M. ;
McNally, A. P. ;
Monge-Sanz, B. M. ;
Morcrette, J. -J. ;
Park, B. -K. ;
Peubey, C. ;
de Rosnay, P. ;
Tavolato, C. ;
Thepaut, J. -N. ;
Vitart, F. .
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2011, 137 (656) :553-597
[5]   CMIP5 model-simulated onset, duration and intensity of the Asian summer monsoon in current and future climate [J].
Dong, Guangtao ;
Zhang, H. ;
Moise, A. ;
Hanson, L. ;
Liang, P. ;
Ye, H. .
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2016, 46 (1-2) :355-382
[6]   Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization [J].
Eyring, Veronika ;
Bony, Sandrine ;
Meehl, Gerald A. ;
Senior, Catherine A. ;
Stevens, Bjorn ;
Stouffer, Ronald J. ;
Taylor, Karl E. .
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT, 2016, 9 (05) :1937-1958
[7]   Asian Summer Monsoon in CMIP5 Projections: A Link between the Change in Extreme Precipitation and Monsoon Dynamics [J].
Freychet, Nicolas ;
Hsu, Huang-Hsiung ;
Chou, Chia ;
Wu, Chi-Hua .
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2015, 28 (04) :1477-1493
[8]   ENSO control on the south Asian monsoon through the length of the rainy season [J].
Goswami, BN ;
Xavier, PK .
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2005, 32 (18) :1-4
[9]   Added value of CMIP6 over CMIP5 models in simulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall [J].
Gusain, A. ;
Ghosh, S. ;
Karmakar, S. .
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2020, 232
[10]   Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming [J].
Held, Isaac M. ;
Soden, Brian J. .
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2006, 19 (21) :5686-5699
12345