Front End Project Planning for the Power Sector in Africa: A Conceptual System Dynamics Model

Developing countries offer abundant opportunities for high return and high growth potential investments, such as in critical energy sector infrastructure projects. In Africa, major projects are presently in progress to upgrade and refurbish the infrastructure in the energy sector, and especially in the electricity energy sub sector. However, many of these projects run into delays, quality problems and cost overruns which amongst other causes, are attributed to inadequate time and resources spent in the initial pre-planning and planning phases of these projects. This research focuses on electricity infrastructure projects in Africa using system dynamics approach. From the literature, the paper explores and discusses theories, methods and models previously developed to better manage projects, including how these models are to be used to derive a model beneficial to energy sector projects in Africa. The results of the research will help in reducing uncertainty in projects in the Africa and other developing countries, and will be beneficial to energy sector players, including investors in the energy sector. This paper presents results of literature review in this area as well as the initial systems thinking in model building. The research uses a system dynamics approach employing vensim software in model building and analysis.