Survey Design Elements as Influences on Estimates of Self-Reported Illicit Substance Use and Other Illegal Activities

National surveys of self-reported substance use and other problem behavior frequently produce different prevalence estimates for substance use and other problem behaviors. There is research indicating different aspects of survey methodology may artificially inflate or deflate prevalence rates, and while some research has been done on specific influences, taken separately, little has been done to estimate the cumulative impact of these methodological variations, taken together, on survey estimates. The present study compares methodologies of three studies, Monitoring the Future (MTF), National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), and National Youth Survey Family Study (NYSFS), on how differences in methodology may influence estimated rates of problem behavior, and the extent to which knowledge of the differences, taken in combination, allow prediction of differences in those rates. Differences in survey methodology are predictive of differences in prevalence. Implications for the use of the surveys are considered.