Dynamical downscaling of amultimodelensemble prediction system: Application to tropical cyclones

被引:15
作者
Kaur, Manpreet [1 ,2 ]
Krishna, R. Phani Murali [1 ]
Joseph, Susmitha [1 ]
Dey, Avijit [1 ]
Mandal, Raju [1 ]
Chattopadhyay, Rajib [1 ]
Sahai, Atul Kumar [1 ]
Mukhopadhyay, Parthasarathi [1 ]
Abhilash, Sukumarapillai [3 ]
机构
[1] Indian Inst Trop Meteorol, Pune, Maharashtra, India
[2] Savitribai Phule Pune Univ, Dept Atmospher & Space Sci, Pune, Maharashtra, India
[3] Cochin Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Atmospher Sci, Cochin, Kerala, India
来源
ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS | 2020年 / 21卷 / 08期
关键词
bias correction; dynamical downscaling; regional modeling; tropical cyclone; INDIAN-SUMMER MONSOON; EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION; GCM BIAS CORRECTIONS; ACTIVE-BREAK SPELLS; INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS; FORECAST SYSTEM; CLIMATE; SIMULATION; MODEL; PARAMETERIZATION;
D O I
10.1002/asl.971
中图分类号
P3 [地球物理学]; P59 [地球化学];
学科分类号
0708 ; 070902 ;
摘要
This study attempts dynamical downscaling to improve north Indian ocean (NIO) tropical cyclone prediction from a global multimodel ensemble prediction system using weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. A total of 16 ensembles are used in the WRF simulations, these ensembles are bias-corrected prior to downscaling for model climatological errors. The ensemble mean constructed from the output of all downscaled ensembles is analyzed for added value to global predictions. This mean is also compared against observation as well as high-resolution (12 km) deterministic forecast from global forecast system (GFS). Two devastating NIO tropical cyclone cases of year 2017 which were not reliably predicted by global systems have been selected for this study. The results show that downscaled predictions well simulate the intensity and spatial distribution of the rainfall and relative vorticity associated with these cyclonic storms. The wind and temperature vertical profiles during cyclone mature stage are also captured more accurately than raw prediction and high-resolution global deterministic forecast. The study affirms the adequacy of dynamical downscaling in predicting the cyclonic storms over global real-time weather forecasting system.
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页数:11
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