The impact of vaccination on the evolution of COVID-19 in Portugal

被引：14

作者：

Machado, Beatriz ^{[1
]}

Antunes, Liliana ^{[2
]}

Caetano, Constantino ^{[2
,6
]}

Pereira, Joao F. ^{[1
,2
]}

Nunes, Baltazar ^{[2
,3
]}

Patricio, Paula ^{[4
,5
]}

Morgado, M. Luisa ^{[1
,6
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Tras os Montes & Alto Douro, Sch Sci & Technol, UTAD, P-5001801 Vila Real, Portugal

[2] Inst Nacl Saude Doutor Ricardo Jorge INSA, Dept Epidemiol, P-1649016 Lisbon, Portugal

[3] Univ NOVA Lisboa, Escola Nacl Satide Ptibl, Lisbon, Portugal

[4] FCT NOVA, NOVA Sch Sci & Technol, Ctr Math & Applicat CMA, P-2829516 Quinta Da Torre, Caparica, Portugal

[5] FCT NOVA, NOVA Sch Sci & Technol, Dept Math, P-2829516 Quinta Da Torre, Caparica, Portugal

[6] Univ Lisbon, Ctr Computat & Stochast Math, Inst Super Tecn, P-1049001 Lisbon, Portugal

来源：

MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING | 2022年 / 19卷 / 01期

关键词：

COVID-19; vaccination; epidemiology; SEIR model;

D O I：

10.3934/mbe.2022043

中图分类号：

Q [生物科学];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

In this work we use simple mathematical models to study the impact of vaccination against COVID-19 in Portugal. First, we fit a SEIR type model without vaccination to the Portuguese data on confirmed cases of COVID-19 by the date of symptom onset, from the beginning of the epidemic until the 23rd January of 2021, to estimate changes in the transmission intensity. Then, by including vaccination in the model we develop different scenarios for the fade-out of the non pharmacological intervention (NPIs) as vaccine coverage increases in the population according to Portuguese vaccination goals. We include a feedback function to mimic the implementation and relaxation of NPIs, according to some disease incidence thresholds defined by the Portuguese health authorities.

引用

页码：936 / 952

页数：17

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