The Threat of Multi-Year Drought in Western Amazonia

被引：15

作者：

Parsons, L. A. ^{[1
]}

LeRoy, S. ^{[2
]}

Overpeck, J. T. ^{[3
]}

Bush, M. ^{[4
]}

Cardenes-Sandi, G. M. ^{[5
]}

Saleska, S. ^{[6
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Arizona, Dept Geosci, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA

[2] Univ Arizona, Inst Environm, Tucson, AZ USA

[3] Univ Michigan, Sch Environm & Sustainabil, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA

[4] Florida Inst Technol, Dept Biol Sci, Melbourne, FL 32901 USA

[5] Univ Costa Rica, Escuela Ctr Amer Geol, San Jose, Costa Rica

[6] Univ Arizona, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Tucson, AZ USA

来源：

WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH | 2018年 / 54卷 / 09期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

Amazon; drought; hydroclimate; climate variability; climate mode; paleoclimate; AMERICAN MONSOON SYSTEM; LAST; 2; MILLENNIA; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; HYDROCLIMATE VARIABILITY; PERSISTENT DROUGHT; TROPICAL ANDES; RECORD; PRECIPITATION; BASIN; CMIP5;

D O I：

10.1029/2017WR021788

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Recent "once-in-a-century" Amazonian droughts highlight the impacts of drought and climate change on this region's vegetation, carbon storage, water cycling, biodiversity, land use, and economy. The latest climate model simulations suggest this region will experience worsening future drought. However, the instrumental record is too short to quantify the range of background drought variability, or to evaluate extended drought risk in climate models. To overcome these limitations, we generated a new, highly resolved lake record of hydroclimatic variability within the western Amazon Basin. We find that Amazonia has regularly experienced multi-year droughts over the last millennium. Our results indicate that current climate model simulations likely underestimate the background risk of multi-year Amazonian drought. These findings illustrate that the future sustainability of the Amazonian forest and its many services may require management strategies that consider the likelihood of multi-year droughts superimposed on a continued warming trend.

引用

页码：5890 / 5904

页数：15

共 92 条

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