Trends in the Mortality of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in the United States

被引:59
作者
Beal, Eliza W. [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Tumin, Dmitry [4 ]
Kabir, Ali [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Moris, Dimitrios [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Zhang, Xu-Feng [1 ,2 ,3 ,5 ,6 ]
Chakedis, Jeffery [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Washburn, Kenneth [5 ,6 ]
Black, Sylvester [5 ,6 ]
Schmidt, Carl M. [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Pawlik, Timothy M. [1 ,2 ,3 ,7 ]
机构
[1] Ohio State Univ, Dept Surg, Div Surg Oncol, Wexner Med Ctr, Columbus, OH 43210 USA
[2] James Canc Hosp, Columbus, OH 43210 USA
[3] Solove Res Inst, Columbus, OH 43210 USA
[4] Nationwide Childrens Hosp, Dept Anesthesiol & Pain Med, Columbus, OH USA
[5] Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Dept Hepatobiliary Surg, Xian, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
[6] Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Inst Adv Surg Technol & Engn, Xian, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
[7] Ohio State Univ, Wexner Med Ctr, Dept Surg, Urban Meyer III & Shelley Meyer Chair Canc Res, 395 W 12th Ave,Suite 670, Columbus, OH 43210 USA
关键词
Hepatocellular carcinoma; Mortality; AWAITING LIVER-TRANSPLANTATION; EQUIVALENT MODEL; DISEASE; CIRRHOSIS;
D O I
10.1007/s11605-017-3526-7
中图分类号
R57 [消化系及腹部疾病];
学科分类号
摘要
Primary liver cancer mortality rates have been increasing in the US, but reported decreases among 35-49 year olds may foreshadow future declines. We sought to use age-period-cohort (APC) modeling to evaluate the contribution of cohort effects to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality trends in the US. Data on HCC mortality were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Center for Health Statistics WONDER Online Multiple Cause of Death database, 1999-2015. Crude mortality rates were plotted by gender and age at death. Gender-specific restricted cubic spline APC models were fit to determine influence of birth cohort on incidence of HCC mortality, in reference to the 1940 birth cohort. Highest mortality rates were found among men ages 70+, with steepest increase in mortality observed among men 55-69 years old. Similar trends were found among females. Accounting for the cohort effect in the APC model markedly improved model fit (likelihood ratio test p < 0.001). Relative to the 1940 birth cohort, risk of mortality due to HCC was significantly higher in later as well as earlier cohorts. HCC-associated mortality continues to increase, secondary to an increase in the risk of HCC-associated mortality in more recent birth cohorts among both men and women.
引用
收藏
页码:2033 / 2038
页数:6
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