Influence of acquisition time and resolution on wheat yield estimation at the field scale from canopy biophysical variables retrieved from SPOT satellite data

Detailed information about the prediction of within-field potential in terms of yield at the field scale is an attractive goal that would allow useful applications in precision agriculture. Biophysical variables characterizing crop canopies, such as the leaf area index (LAI), fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), fractional ground cover (Fcover) and the concentration of chlorophyll-a and -b (Cab), can be estimated from satellite remote-sensing data through the application of a neural network inversion of a radiative transfer model, such as PROSAIL. The knowledge of the temporal and spatial variability of these variables can enhance the possibilities of estimating yield at the field scale. The aim of this study is to investigate the influence of acquisition time and spatial resolution of biophysical variables estimated from satellite data on the grain yield estimation of wheat crops. We used SPOT 4 (spatial resolution: 20 m) and SPOT 5 (spatial resolution: 10 m) images, acquired at six different dates during the wheat growing season in 2012, to obtain LAI, Fcover, FAPAR, and Cab on five fields in Maccarese (Central Italy). A preliminary survey was carried out to correlate spatially biophysical variables with the final grain yield at each acquisition date. Biophysical variables estimated at a spatial resolution of 10 m during the stem elongation stage showed the best simple and spatial correlation with yield. At this stage, all the biophysical variables showed the highest correlation values as compared to the other dates. Subsequently, we used the variables estimated from SPOT data at each growth stage to calibrate multiple linear regression (MLR) and cubist regression (CR) models for two fields, which were then validated on five independent fields. Although the CR calibration models provided better accuracy than MLR, the best validation statistics were gained from MLR models, obtaining a root mean square error (RMSE) of about 1 t ha(-1) for three of these fields, using remote data having a spatial resolution of 10 metres and acquired between steam elongation and booting stage. The optimal acquisition time is affected, ceteris paribus, by the agricultural management and in particular by the variety that can influence the trend of crop growth. However, the optimal growth stage for yield estimation seems to be quite similar over the study area during a growth season. The validation of models on field data collected in another growing season is mainly affected by the climate conditions. These results highlight the importance of spatial resolution and the influence of acquisition time of satellite images on the estimation of yield at the field scale by remote-sensing data.