Dynamical characterization of antiviral effects in COVID-19

被引:8
作者
Abuin, Pablo [1 ]
Anderson, Alejandro [1 ]
Ferramosca, Antonio [2 ]
Hernandez-Vargas, Esteban A. [3 ]
Gonzalez, Alejandro H. [1 ]
机构
[1] CONICET UNL, Inst Technol Dev Chem Ind INTEC, Santa Fe, Argentina
[2] Univ Bergamo, Dept Management Informat & Prod Engn, Via Marconi 5, I-24044 Dalmine, BG, Italy
[3] UNAM, Unidad Juriquilla, Inst Matemat, Queretaro 76230, Mexico
关键词
SARS-CoV-2; In-host model; Dynamic characterization; Antiviral effectiveness; VIRUS-INFECTION; REMDESIVIR;
D O I
10.1016/j.arcontrol.2021.05.001
中图分类号
TP [自动化技术、计算机技术];
学科分类号
0812 ;
摘要
Mathematical models describing SARS-CoV-2 dynamics and the corresponding immune responses in patients with COVID-19 can be critical to evaluate possible clinical outcomes of antiviral treatments. In this work, based on the concept of virus spreadability in the host, antiviral effectiveness thresholds are determined to establish whether or not a treatment will be able to clear the infection. In addition, the virus dynamic in the host - including the time-to-peak and the final monotonically decreasing behavior - is characterized as a function of the time to treatment initiation. Simulation results, based on nine patient data, show the potential clinical benefits of a treatment classification according to patient critical parameters. This study is aimed at paving the way for the different antivirals being developed to tackle SARS-CoV-2.
引用
收藏
页码:587 / 601
页数:15
相关论文
共 55 条
[1]   Characterization of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in the host [J].
Abuin, Pablo ;
Anderson, Alejandro ;
Ferramosca, Antonio ;
Hernandez-Vargas, Esteban A. ;
Gonzalez, Alejandro H. .
ANNUAL REVIEWS IN CONTROL, 2020, 50 :457-468
[2]   Virological assessment of hospitalized patients with COVID-2019 [J].
Woelfel, Roman ;
Corman, Victor M. ;
Guggemos, Wolfgang ;
Seilmaier, Michael ;
Zange, Sabine ;
Mueller, Marcel A. ;
Niemeyer, Daniela ;
Jones, Terry C. ;
Vollmar, Patrick ;
Rothe, Camilla ;
Hoelscher, Michael ;
Bleicker, Tobias ;
Bruenink, Sebastian ;
Schneider, Julia ;
Ehmann, Rosina ;
Zwirglmaier, Katrin ;
Drosten, Christian ;
Wendtner, Clemens .
NATURE, 2020, 581 (7809) :465-+
[3]   Kinetics of influenza A virus infection in humans [J].
Baccam, Prasith ;
Beauchemin, Catherine ;
Macken, Catherine A. ;
Hayden, Frederick G. ;
Perelson, Alan S. .
JOURNAL OF VIROLOGY, 2006, 80 (15) :7590-7599
[4]  
Bruno R., 2020, ARXIV2020200309861
[5]   HIV-1 infection and low steady state viral loads [J].
Callaway, DS ;
Perelson, AS .
BULLETIN OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY, 2002, 64 (01) :29-64
[6]   The Mechanisms for Within-Host Influenza Virus Control Affect Model-Based Assessment and Prediction of Antiviral Treatment [J].
Cao, Pengxing ;
McCaw, James M. .
VIRUSES-BASEL, 2017, 9 (08)
[7]   COVID-19 case-fatality rate and demographic and socioeconomic influencers: worldwide spatial regression analysis based on country-level data [J].
Cao, Yang ;
Hiyoshi, Ayako ;
Montgomery, Scott .
BMJ OPEN, 2020, 10 (11)
[8]  
Ciupe Stanca M, 2017, Infect Dis Model, V2, P188, DOI 10.1016/j.idm.2017.04.002
[9]   Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine as available weapons to fight COVID-19 [J].
Colson, Philippe ;
Rolain, Jean-Marc ;
Lagier, Jean-Christophe ;
Brouqui, Philippe ;
Raoult, Didier .
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ANTIMICROBIAL AGENTS, 2020, 55 (04)
[10]   Modeling hepatitis C virus dynamics: Liver regeneration and critical drug efficacy [J].
Dahari, Harel ;
Lo, Arthur ;
Ribeiro, Ruy M. ;
Perelson, Alan S. .
JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY, 2007, 247 (02) :371-381