Forecasting and assessment of the 2030 australian electricity mix paths towards energy transition

This study aims to analyse whether the Australian commitment to the Paris Agreement in 2016 and national energy policies will have a visible effect in decreasing the historical dependence of the NEM (National Electricity Market) on fossil fuels by 2030 and consequently decreasing the carbon emissions generated. In this paper, we model the 2030 electricity mix in the NEM in Australia. EnergyPlan, which is the modelling tool adopted for this study, is described and a reference model is conceived and calibrated based on the 2018 electricity situation on the NEM. The simulations are implemented considering three different supply scenarios and three potential electricity demands, to evaluate how different variables can influence the NEM electricity mix by 2030. This study concludes that by 2030 wind and solar power (including rooftop-PV systems) will be the major renewable energy contributors in the NEM, as opposed to 2018 where hydropower represented the main renewable energy source. Nonetheless, the electricity system in 2030 will continue to rely on fossil fuels, which will account for more than 50% of the final energy mix in every scenario, depicting that new efforts will still be needed beyond 2030. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.