Productivity and life history of sockeye salmon in relation to competition with pink and sockeye salmon in the North Pacific Ocean

Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations from Southeast Alaska through British Columbia to Washington State have experienced similar declines in productivity over the past two decades, leading to economic and ecosystem concerns. Because the declines have spanned a wide geographic area, the primary mechanisms driving them likely operate at a large, multiregional scale at sea. However, identification of such mechanisms has remained elusive. Using hierarchical models of stock-recruitment dynamics, we tested the hypothesis that competition between pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and sockeye salmon for prey has led to reduced growth and productivity and delayed maturation of up to 36 sockeye populations spanning the region during the past 55 years. Our findings indicate the abundance of North Pacific pink salmon in the second year of sockeye life at sea is a key factor contributing to the decline of sockeye salmon productivity, including sockeye in the Fraser River where an increase from 200 to 400 million pink salmon is predicted to reduce sockeye recruitment by 39%. Additionally, length-at-age of Fraser River sockeye salmon declined with greater sockeye and pink salmon abundance, and age at maturity increased with greater pink salmon abundance. Our analyses provide evidence that interspecific competition for prey can affect growth, age, and survival of sockeye salmon at sea.