A novel RUL prognosis methodology of multilevel system with cascading failure: Subsea oil and gas transportation systems as a case study

被引：12

作者：

Cai, Baoping ^{[1
]}

Shao, Xiaoyan ^{[1
]}

Yuan, Xiaobing ^{[1
]}

Liu, Yonghong ^{[1
]}

Chen, Guoming ^{[1
]}

Feng, Qiang ^{[2
]}

Liu, Yiqi ^{[3
]}

Ren, Yi ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] China Univ Petr, Coll Mech & Elect Engn, Qingdao 266580, Shandong, Peoples R China

[2] Beihang Univ, Sch Reliabil & Syst Engn, Beijing 100191, Peoples R China

[3] South China Univ Technol, Sch Automat Sci & Engn, Wushang Rd, Guangzhou 510640, Peoples R China

来源：

OCEAN ENGINEERING | 2021年 / 242卷

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

Cascading failure; Multilevel systems; Dynamic Bayesian network; Remaining useful life; Position and function importance; PREDICTION; MODEL; ALGORITHM;

D O I：

10.1016/j.oceaneng.2021.110141

中图分类号：

U6 [水路运输]; P75 [海洋工程];

学科分类号：

0814 ; 081505 ; 0824 ; 082401 ;

摘要：

Cascading failure has a great negative impact on the operation of multilevel systems. Although the frequency of this kind of failure is lower than that of general failure, it may cause outage and considerable human and economic losses. In this paper, a novel modeling methodology of cascading failure based on position importance and function importance is proposed by using dynamic Bayesian networks, and the remaining useful life (RUL) of multilevel systems considering cascading failure is estimated. By detecting the working state of the nodes, the position and function importance of the nodes are determined, and the performance of the next layer of related nodes is calculated. Through calculating iteratively to the last level, the number of failure nodes is finally determined, and the overall performance of the multilevel systems is evaluated. A subsea transportation system with three-level network and four nodes in each level is used to demonstrate the application of the proposed methodology, and the feasibility of the methodology is analyzed. The results show that the RUL of the systems is significantly reduced when considering the cascading failure, which is quite different from the degradation of the non-cascading failure mode.

引用

页数：11

共 35 条

[1] Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Structure Systems Under the Influence of Multiple Causes: Subsea Pipelines as a Case Study [J].

Cai, Baoping ;

Shao, Xiaoyan ;

Liu, Yonghong ;

Kong, Xiangdi ;

Wang, Haifeng ;

Xu, Hongqi ;

Ge, Weifeng .

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INDUSTRIAL ELECTRONICS, 2020, 67 (07) :5737-5747

[2] Application of Bayesian Networks in Reliability Evaluation [J].

Cai, Baoping ;

Kong, Xiangdi ;

Liu, Yonghong ;

Lin, Jing ;

Yuan, Xiaobing ;

Xu, Hongqi ;

Ji, Renjie .

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INDUSTRIAL INFORMATICS, 2019, 15 (04) :2146-2157

[3] A Dynamic-Bayesian-Network-Based Fault Diagnosis Methodology Considering Transient and Intermittent Faults [J].

Cai, Baoping ;

Liu, Yu ;

Xie, Min .

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON AUTOMATION SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING, 2017, 14 (01) :276-285

[4] A real-time fault diagnosis methodology of complex systems using object-oriented Bayesian networks [J].

Cai, Baoping ;

Liu, Hanlin ;

Xie, Min .

MECHANICAL SYSTEMS AND SIGNAL PROCESSING, 2016, 80 :31-44

[5] Using Bayesian networks in reliability evaluation for subsea blowout preventer control system [J].

Cai, Baoping ;

Liu, Yonghong ;

Liu, Zengkai ;

Tian, Xiaojie ;

Dong, Xin ;

Yu, Shilin .

RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY, 2012, 108 :32-41

[6] Dynamic risk assessment approach of riser recoil control failure during production test of marine natural gas hydrate [J].

Chang, Yuanjiang ;

Li, Jiayi ;

Zhang, Changshuai ;

Chen, Guoming ;

Li, Xinhong ;

Zhang, Shenyan ;

Xu, Liangbin ;

Sheng, Leixiang .

ENERGY SCIENCE & ENGINEERING, 2019, 7 (05) :1808-1822

[7] Gated recurrent unit based recurrent neural network for remaining useful life prediction of nonlinear deterioration process [J].

Chen Jinglong ;

Jing Hongjie ;

Chang Yuanhong ;

Liu Qian .

RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY, 2019, 185 :372-382

[8]

Chen L.Y., 2018, CONDITION MONITORING, P179

[9] Enhanced Particle Filtering for Bearing Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Wind Turbine Drivetrain Gearboxes [J].

Cheng, Fangzhou ;

Qu, Liyan ;

Qiao, Wei ;

Hao, Liwei .

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INDUSTRIAL ELECTRONICS, 2019, 66 (06) :4738-4748

[10] Control of Communications-Dependent Cascading Failures in Power Grids [J].

Cordova-Garcia, Jose ;

Wang, Xin ;

Xie, Dongliang ;

Zhao, Yue ;

Zuo, Lei .

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SMART GRID, 2019, 10 (05) :5021-5031

← 1 2 3 4 →