Assessment of climate change impacts on energy generation from renewable sources in Croatia

被引:65
|
作者
Pasicko, Robert [1 ]
Brankovic, Cedo [2 ]
Simic, Zdenko [3 ]
机构
[1] United Nations Dev Programme UNDP, Zagreb, Croatia
[2] Croatian Meteorol & Hydrol Serv DHMZ, Zagreb, Croatia
[3] Univ Zagreb, Fac Elect Engn & Comp, Zagreb 41000, Croatia
关键词
Climate change; Wind power; Photovoltaic; Hydro power; Climate modelling; EUROPE;
D O I
10.1016/j.renene.2012.03.029
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Although the subject of climate change attracts enormous attention, there is limited number of analyses dealing with climate change impacts on the power system planning. It is important to understand these influences since the power system planning must consider very long time spans, and therefore it might be affected by potential climate change in multiple ways. This study focuses on the initial evaluation of climate change impacts on renewable energy sources in Croatia - specifically, photovoltaic, wind and hydro energy. The climate data used for this assessment were taken from the global climate model ECHAM5-MPIOM and dynamically downscaled by the regional climate model RegCM at Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ). The results based on the IPCC A2 scenario for the two future climate time periods, 2011-2040 and 2041-2070, are analyzed. The climate change that would potentially have the most significant impact on renewables is expected in the coastal and adjoining areas of Croatia during summer where an increase by 20% in the mean wind speed is projected already for the first time period, and more than 50% until 2070. This would, theoretically, imply almost a doubling in electricity production even in the first period. The impact of climate change on electricity production from photovoltaics might be neutral since it is balanced by opposing dominant factors, while a reduction of more than 10% in the production of electricity from hydro power plants could be expected after 2050. Estimates of uncertainties related to climate change are necessary in order to be able to determine the importance of climate change impacts on the future power generation from renewable energy sources. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:224 / 231
页数:8
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] Climate change and renewable energy sources
    Scheer, H
    INTERNATIONALE POLITIK, 2004, 59 (08): : 1 - 6
  • [2] Climate change impacts on renewable electricity generation
    Cradden, Lucy
    Burnett, Dougal
    Agarwal, Atul
    Harrison, Gareth
    INFRASTRUCTURE ASSET MANAGEMENT, 2015, 2 (03)
  • [3] Climate change impacts on renewable energy supply
    David E. H. J. Gernaat
    Harmen Sytze de Boer
    Vassilis Daioglou
    Seleshi G. Yalew
    Christoph Müller
    Detlef P. van Vuuren
    Nature Climate Change, 2021, 11 : 119 - 125
  • [4] Climate change impacts on renewable energy supply
    Gernaat, David E. H. J.
    de Boer, Harmen Sytze
    Daioglou, Vassilis
    Yalew, Seleshi G.
    Muller, Christoph
    van Vuuren, Detlef P.
    NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, 2021, 11 (02) : 119 - 125
  • [5] Climate change impacts on renewable energy generation. A review of quantitative projections
    Solaun, Kepa
    Cerda, Emilio
    RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS, 2019, 116
  • [6] Renewable Energy Sources Availability under Climate Change Scenarios - Impacts on the Portuguese Energy System
    Cleto, Joao
    Simoes, Sofia
    Fortes, Patricia
    Seixas, Julia
    2008 5TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ELECTRICITY MARKET, VOLS 1 AND 2, 2008, : 463 - 468
  • [7] Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation
    Raineri Bernai, Ricardo
    ECONOMICS OF ENERGY & ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, 2013, 2 (01) : 101 - 112
  • [8] CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE NEED FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES
    Malaki, Amina
    El Ghannouchi, Abdelilah
    El Wartiti, Mohamed
    DESERTIFICATION AND RISK ANALYSIS USING HIGH AND MEDIUM RESOLUTION SATELLITE DATA, 2009, : 19 - 25
  • [9] Renewable sources of energy and climate change mitigation
    Johansson, Thomas B.
    Renewable energy, 1994, 5 (1 -4 pt 1) : 67 - 68
  • [10] Projection of the Climate Change Impacts on Electricity Production Derived from Renewable Sources
    de Souza, Pietro Campagna
    Sousa, Joao
    Mourato, Sandra
    PROCEEDINGS OF THE 3RD INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON WATER ENERGY FOOD AND SUSTAINABILITY, ICOWEFS 2023, 2024, : 321 - 329