Projecting the Number of Elderly with Cognitive Impairment in China Using a Multi-State Dynamic Population Model

被引：15

作者：

Ansah, John P. ^{[1
]}

Koh, Victoria ^{[1
]}

Chiu, Chi-Tsun ^{[2
]}

Chei, Choy-Lye ^{[1
]}

Zeng, Yi ^{[3
,4
,5
,6
,7
,8
]}

Yin, Zhao-Xue ^{[9
]}

Shi, Xiao-Ming ^{[10
]}

Matchar, David B. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Duke NUS Med Sch, Hlth Serv & Syst Res, Singapore, Singapore

[2] Acad Sinica, Inst European & Amer Studies, Taipei, Taiwan

[3] Ctr Study Aging & Human, Dev & Geriatr Div, Singapore, Singapore

[4] Duke Univ, Sch Med, Dept Med, Durham, NC 27706 USA

[5] Duke Univ, Inst Populat Res, Durham, NC 27706 USA

[6] Duke Univ, Dept Sociol, Durham, NC 27706 USA

[7] Peking Univ China, China Ctr Econ Res, Beijing, Peoples R China

[8] Peking Univ China, Natl Sch Dev, Beijing, Peoples R China

[9] Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Beijing, Peoples R China

[10] Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Inst Environm Hlth & Related Product Safety, Beijing, Peoples R China

来源：

SYSTEM DYNAMICS REVIEW | 2017年 / 33卷 / 02期

基金：

英国医学研究理事会;

关键词：

MINI-MENTAL-STATE; ALZHEIMERS-DISEASE; DEMENTIA; CARE; PREVALENCE; HEALTH; TRANSITIONS; MORTALITY; POLICY; ADULTS;

D O I：

10.1002/sdr.1581

中图分类号：

C93 [管理学];

学科分类号：

12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;

摘要：

China is aging rapidly, and the number of Chinese elderly with dementia is expected to rise. This paper projects, up to year 2060, the number of Chinese elderly within four distinct cognitive states. A multi-state population model was developed using system dynamics and parametrized with age-gender-specific transition rates (between intact, mild, moderate and severe cognitive impairment and death) estimated from two waves (2012 and 2014) of a community-based cohort of elderly in China aged 65 years (N = 1824). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis and the bootstrap method was used to obtain the 95% confidence interval of the transition rates. The number of elderly with any degree of cognitive impairment increases; with severe cognitive impairment increasing the most, at 698%. Among elderly with cognitive impairment, the proportion of very old elderly (age 80) is expected to rise from 53% to 78% by 2060. This will affect the demand for social and health services China. Copyright (c) 2017 System Dynamics Society

引用

页码：89 / 111

页数：23

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