Price forecasting of day-ahead electricity markets using a hybrid forecast method

Energy price forecasting in a competitive electricity market is crucial for the market participants in planning their operations and managing their risk, and it is also the key information in the economic optimization of the electric power industry. However, price series usually have a complex behavior due to their nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and time variancy. In this paper, a novel hybrid method to forecast day-ahead electricity price is proposed. This hybrid method is based on wavelet transform, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (RBFN). The wavelet transform provides a set of better-behaved constitutive series than price series for prediction. ARIMA model is used to generate a linear forecast, and then RBFN is developed as a tool for nonlinear pattern recognition to correct the estimation error in wavelet-ARIMA forecast. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is used to optimize the network structure which makes the RBFN be adapted to the specified training set, reducing computation complexity and avoiding overfitting. The proposed method is examined on the electricity market of mainland Spain and the results are compared with some of the most recent price forecast methods. The results show that the proposed hybrid method could provide a considerable improvement for the forecasting accuracy. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.