A context-aware decision support tool for assessing and mitigating drivers of civil instability

Military planners and decision-makers face a number of challenges with the shift towards operating within diverse, multidimensional, and unconventionalenvironments. Leadersrequire a deeper understanding of the broader social and civil context in which operations occur, including the underlying factors that contribute to instability and the drivers of conflict. This understanding is often derived through the analysis of textual data. Both traditional and non-traditional sources - such as news articles, blog entries, and tweets - represent a vast amount of data that can be brought to bear on problems ranging from measuring the progress of missions to forecasting important changes in the environment. The volume and velocity of this data requires processing tools that can help users understand the concepts and events being discussed. Additionally, these data are inherently ambiguous, and the automated processing techniques necessary for aggregating and analyzing data may introduce further uncertainty. The validity and veracity of data, sources, assumptions, and conclusions must be carefully considered prior to action. Planners and decision-makers require new, data-driven tools that aid in selecting the best course of action through interactive exploration and assessment processes. In this paper, we describe an ongoing research and development effort to create a context-driven, web-based tool that aids planning and decision-making by providing a more comprehensive understanding of the civil component of operational environments. This tool allows users to rapidly find, organize, and assess complex data across multiple phases of civil information management. This includes: (1) researching and assessing civil vulnerabilities; (2) developing plans to address identified vulnerabilities; and (3) tracking ongoing trends and progress towards goals and objectives. Our tool assists the user in each phase by collecting, processing, and recommending data and analyses that are contextually relevant to their task. By offloading data collection, supporting data organization, and providing personalized recommendations, our tool allows users to focus their efforts on verifying, interpreting, and assessing the informationneeded to recommend the best course of action. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.