Global energy growth is outpacing decarbonization

被引:188
作者
Jackson, R. B. [1 ,2 ]
Le Quere, C. [3 ]
Andrew, R. M. [4 ]
Canadell, J. G. [5 ]
Korsbakken, J. I. [4 ]
Liu, Z. [3 ,7 ]
Peters, G. P. [4 ]
Zheng, B. [6 ]
机构
[1] Stanford Univ, Woods Inst Environm, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
[2] Stanford Univ, Precourt Inst Energy, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
[3] Univ East Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich Res Pk, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England
[4] CICERO Ctr Int Climate Res, POB 1129 Blindern, NO-0318 Oslo, Norway
[5] CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Global Carbon Project, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
[6] CEA CNRS UVSQ, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, UMR8212, Gif Sur Yvette, France
[7] Tsinghua Univ, Deparment Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China
来源
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2018年 / 13卷 / 12期
基金
欧盟地平线“2020”;
关键词
CO2; EMISSIONS; POVERTY;
D O I
10.1088/1748-9326/aaf303
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Recent reports have highlighted the challenge of keeping global average temperatures below 2 degrees C and - even more so-1.5 degrees C(IPCC 2018). Fossil-fuel burning and cement production release similar to 90% of all CO2 emissions from human activities. After a three-year hiatus with stable global emissions (Jackson et al 2016; Le Quere Cet al 2018a; IEA 2018), CO2 emissions grew by 1.6% in 2017 to 36.2 Gt (billion tonnes), and are expected to grow a further 2.7% in 2018 (range: 1.8%-3.7%) to a record 37.1 +/- 2 Gt CO2 (Le Quere et al 2018b). Additional increases in 2019 remain uncertain but appear likely because of persistent growth in oil and natural gas use and strong growth projected for the global economy. Coal use has slowed markedly in the last few years, potentially peaking, but its future trajectory remains uncertain. Despite positive progress in similar to 19 countries whose economies have grown over the last decade and their emissions have declined, growth in energy use from fossil-fuel sources is still outpacing the rise of low-carbon sources and activities. Arobust global economy, insufficient emission reductions in developed countries, and a need for increased energy use in developing countries where per capita emissions remain far below those of wealthier nations will continue to put upward pressure on CO2 emissions. Peak emissions will occur only when total fossil CO2 emissions finally start to decline despite growth in global energy consumption, with fossil energy production replaced by rapidly growing low-or no-carbon technologies.
引用
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页数:7
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