Preoperative serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 levels predict early recurrence after the resection of early-stage pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is a serious disease with a poor prognosis. Only a minority of patients undergo surgery due to the advanced stage of the disease, and patients with early-stage disease, who are expected to have a better prognosis, often experience recurrence. Thus, it is important to identify the risk factors for early recurrence and to develop an adequate treatment plan. AIM To evaluate the predictive factors associated with the early recurrence of early-stage PDAC. METHODS This study enrolled 407 patients with stage I PDAC undergoing upfront surgical resection between January 2000 and April 2016. Early recurrence was defined as a diagnosis of recurrence within 6 mo of surgery. The optimal cutoff values were determined by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the risk factors for early recurrence. RESULTS Of the 407 patients, 98 patients (24.1%) experienced early disease recurrence: 26 (26.5%) local and 72 (73.5%) distant sites. In total, 253 (62.2%) patients received adjuvant chemotherapy. On ROC curve analysis, the optimal cutoff values for early recurrence were 70 U/mL and 2.85 cm for carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9) levels and tumor size, respectively. Of the 181 patients with CA 19-9 level > 70 U/mL, 59 (32.6%) had early recurrence, compared to 39 (17.4%) of 226 patients with CA 19-9 level <= 70 U/mL (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that CA 19-9 level > 70 U/mL (P = 0.006), tumor size > 2.85 cm (P = 0.004), poor differentiation (P = 0.008), and non-adjuvant chemotherapy (P = 0.025) were significant risk factors for early recurrence in early-stage PDAC. CONCLUSION Elevated CA 19-9 level (cutoff value > 70 U/mL) can be a reliable predictive factor for early recurrence in early-stage. PDAC. As adjuvant chemotherapy can prevent early recurrence, it should be recommended for patients susceptible to early recurrence.