Prognostic model for total mortality in patients with haemodialysis from the Assessments of Survival and Cardiovascular Events (AURORA) study

被引:23
作者
Holme, I. [1 ]
Fellstrom, B. C. [2 ]
Jardin, A. G. [3 ]
Schmieder, R. E. [4 ]
Zannad, F. [5 ,6 ,7 ]
Holdaas, H. [8 ]
机构
[1] Oslo Univ Hosp, Dept Prevent Cardiol, Ctr Prevent Med, N-0407 Oslo, Norway
[2] Univ Uppsala Hosp, Uppsala, Sweden
[3] Glasgow Cardiovasc Res Ctr, Bristist Heart Fdn, Glasgow, Lanark, Scotland
[4] Univ Hosp, Erlangen, Germany
[5] Ctr Invest Clin, Nancy, France
[6] Ctr Hosp Univ, Nancy, France
[7] Nancy Univ, Nancy, France
[8] Univ Oslo, Rikshosp, Oslo Univ Hosp, N-0027 Oslo, Norway
关键词
discrimination; haemodialysis; mortality; prognostic study; stratification; STAGE RENAL-DISEASE; ROSUVASTATIN; RISK; OUTCOMES;
D O I
10.1111/j.1365-2796.2011.02435.x
中图分类号
R5 [内科学];
学科分类号
1002 ; 100201 ;
摘要
Holme I, Fellstrom BC, Jardin AG, Schmieder RE, Zannad F, Holdaas H (Oslo University Hospital, Ulleva degrees l, Oslo, Norway; British Heart Foundation Glasgow Cardiovascular Research Centre, Glasgow, UK; University Hospital, Erlangen, Germany; Centre d`Investigation Clinique; Centre Hospitalier Universitaire, and Nancy Universite, Nancy, France; and Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway). Prognostic model for total mortality in patients with haemodialysis from the Assessments of Survival and Cardiovascular Events (AURORA) study. J Intern Med 2012; 271: 463471. Objectives. Risk factors of mortality in patients with haemodialysis (HD) have been identified in several studies, but few prognostic models have been developed with assessments of calibration and discrimination abilities. We used the database of the Assessment of Survival and Cardiovascular Events study to develop a prognostic model of mortality over 34 years. Methods. Five factors (age, albumin, C-reactive protein, history of cardiovascular disease and diabetes) were selected from experience and forced into the regression equation. In a 67% random try-out sample of patients, no further factors amongst 24 candidates added significance (P < 0.01) to mortality outcome as assessed by Cox regression modelling, and individual probabilities of death were estimated in the try-out and test samples. Calibration was explored by calculating the prognostic index with regression coefficients from the try-out sample to patients in the 33% test sample. Discrimination was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) areas. Results. The strongest prognostic factor in the try-out sample was age, with small differences between the other four factors. Calibration in the test sample was good when the calculated number of deaths was multiplied by a constant of 1.33. The five-factor model discriminated reasonably well between deceased and surviving patients in both the try-out and test samples with an ROC area of about 0.73. Conclusions. A model consisting of five factors can be used to estimate and stratify the probability of death for individuals The model is most useful for long-term prognosis in an HD population with survival prospects of more than 1 year.
引用
收藏
页码:463 / 471
页数:9
相关论文
共 16 条
[1]   Mineral metabolism, mortality, and morbidity in maintenance hemodialysis [J].
Block, GA ;
Klassen, PS ;
Lazarus, JM ;
Ofsthun, N ;
Lowrie, EG ;
Chertow, GM .
JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN SOCIETY OF NEPHROLOGY, 2004, 15 (08) :2208-2218
[2]   Predicting Six-Month Mortality for Patients Who Are on Maintenance Hemodialysis [J].
Cohen, Lewis M. ;
Ruthazer, Robin ;
Moss, Alvin H. ;
Germain, Michael J. .
CLINICAL JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN SOCIETY OF NEPHROLOGY, 2010, 5 (01) :72-79
[3]   A clinical score to predict 6-month prognosis in elderly patients starting dialysis for end-stage renal disease [J].
Couchoud, Cecile ;
Labeeuw, Michel ;
Moranne, Olivier ;
Allot, Vincent ;
Esnault, Vincent ;
Frimat, Luc ;
Stengel, Benedicte .
NEPHROLOGY DIALYSIS TRANSPLANTATION, 2009, 24 (05) :1553-1561
[4]   Rosuvastatin and Cardiovascular Events in Patients Undergoing Hemodialysis [J].
Fellstroem, Bengt C. ;
Jardine, Alan G. ;
Schmieder, Roland E. ;
Holdaas, Hallvard ;
Bannister, Kym ;
Beutler, Jaap ;
Chae, Dong-Wan ;
Chevaile, Alejandro ;
Cobbe, Stuart M. ;
Groenhagen-Riska, Carola ;
De Lima, Jose J. ;
Lins, Robert ;
Mayer, Gert ;
McMahon, Alan W. ;
Parving, Hans-Henrik ;
Remuzzi, Giuseppe ;
Samuelsson, Ola ;
Sonkodi, Sandor ;
Sueleymanlar, Gultekin ;
Tsakiris, Dimitrios ;
Tesar, Vladimir ;
Todorov, Vasil ;
Wiecek, Andrzej ;
Wuethrich, Rudolf P. ;
Gottlow, Mattis ;
Johnsson, Eva ;
Zannad, Faiez .
NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, 2009, 360 (14) :1395-1407
[5]   Effect of rosuvastatin on outcomes in chronic haemodialysis patients -: design and rationale of the AURORA study -: art. no. 9 [J].
Fellström, B ;
Zannad, F ;
Schmieder, R ;
Holdaas, H ;
Jardine, A ;
Rose, H ;
Wilpshaar, W .
CURRENT CONTROLLED TRIALS IN CARDIOVASCULAR MEDICINE, 2005, 6 (1)
[6]   Effect of rosuvastatin on outcomes in chronic haemodialysis patients:: baseline data from the AURORA study [J].
Fellstrom, Bengt ;
Holdaas, Hallvard ;
Jardine, Alan G. ;
Rose, Helen ;
Schmieder, Roland ;
Wilpshaar, Wim ;
Zannad, Faiez .
KIDNEY & BLOOD PRESSURE RESEARCH, 2007, 30 (05) :314-322
[7]   Mortality among hemodialysis patients in Europe, Japan, and the United States:: Case-mix effects [J].
Goodkin, DA ;
Young, EW ;
Kurokawa, K ;
Prütz, KG ;
Levin, NW .
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF KIDNEY DISEASES, 2004, 44 (05) :S16-S21
[8]   Cardiovascular risk and renal transplantation:: Post hoc analyses of the Assessment of Lescol in Renal Transplantation (ALERT) study [J].
Jardine, AG ;
Fellström, B ;
Logan, JO ;
Cole, E ;
Nyberg, G ;
Grönhagen-Riska, C ;
Madsen, S ;
Neumayer, HH ;
Maes, B ;
Ambühl, P ;
Olsson, AG ;
Pedersen, T ;
Holdaas, H .
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF KIDNEY DISEASES, 2005, 46 (03) :529-536
[9]  
Johnson David W, 2007, Hemodial Int, V11, P1, DOI 10.1111/j.1542-4758.2007.00146.x
[10]   Predictors of cardiovascular events in patients with end-stage renal disease:: an analysis from the Fosinopril in Dialysis study [J].
Kessler, Michele ;
Zannad, Faiez ;
Lehert, Philippe ;
Gruenfeld, Jean Pierre ;
Thuilliez, Christian ;
Leizorovicz, Alain ;
Lechat, Philippe .
NEPHROLOGY DIALYSIS TRANSPLANTATION, 2007, 22 (12) :3573-3579