Optimal Trend Inflation

被引：25
作者：
Adam, Klaus [1 ]
Weber, Henning [2 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Mannheim, Dept Econ, L7,3-5, D-68131 Mannheim, Germany
[2] Deutsch Bundesbank, Wilhelm Epstein Str 14, D-60431 Frankfurt, Germany
来源：
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW | 2019年 / 109卷 / 02期
关键词：
OPTIMAL MONETARY-POLICY; PRICES; GROWTH; PRODUCTIVITY; CURRENCY; PLANTS; TRADE; BIAS;
D O I：
10.1257/aer.20171066
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
Sticky price models featuring heterogeneous firms and systematic firm-level productivity trends deliver radically different predictions for the optimal inflation rate than their popular homogenous-firm counterparts: (i) the optimal steady-state inflation rate generically differs from zero and (ii) inflation optimally responds to productivity disturbances. We show this by aggregating a heterogeneous-firm model with sticky prices in closed form. Using firm-level data from the US Census Bureau, we estimate the historically optimal inflation path for the US economy: the optimal inflation rate ranges between 1 percent and 3 percent per year and displays a downward trend over the period 1977-2015.
引用
收藏
页码：702 / 737
页数：36
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