An Adaptive Short-Term Prediction Algorithm for Resource Demands in Cloud Computing

Cloud computing has been widely applied in various fields with the development of big data and artificial intelligence. The associated resource demands exhibit characteristics such as diversity, large scale, burst and uncertainty. This paper analyzes these characteristics of cloud resource demands based on Alibaba cluster data, and proposes an adaptive short-term prediction algorithm for those demands. The proposed algorithm uses a principal component analysis method to extract the primary types of container demands from a time series of resource demands, and executes outlier detection and replacement to obtain a more stationary sequence. An adaptive short-term prediction strategy is proposed to adaptively select a higher-accuracy short-term prediction method to implement the prediction. Further, an error adjustment factor is proposed to reduce the prediction error. Thus, the short-term prediction accuracy of cloud resource demands is improved via outlier detection and replacement, an adaptive selection strategy and an error adjustment. We evaluated the effectiveness of these improvements, and compared our algorithm with existing algorithms in terms of effectiveness and time cost. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm improves short-term prediction accuracy effectively.