Unlocking Diversity in Germplasm Collections via Genomic Selection: A Case Study Based on Quantitative Adult Plant Resistance to Stripe Rust in Spring Wheat

Harnessing diversity from germplasm collections is more feasible today because of the development of lower-cost and higher-throughput genotyping methods. However, the cost of phenotyping is still generally high, so efficient methods of sampling and exploiting useful diversity are needed. Genomic selection (GS) has the potential to enhance the use of desirable genetic variation in germplasm collections through predicting the genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) for all traits that have been measured. Here, we evaluated the effects of various scenarios of population genetic properties and marker density on the accuracy of GEBVs in the context of applying GS for wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) germplasm use. Empirical data for adult plant resistance to stripe rust (Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici) collected on 1163 spring wheat accessions and genotypic data based on the wheat 9K single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) iSelect assay were used for various genomic prediction tests. Unsurprisingly, the results of the cross-validation tests demonstrated that prediction accuracy increased with an increase in training population size and marker density. It was evident that using all the available markers (5619) was unnecessary for capturing the trait variation in the germplasm collection, with no further gain in prediction accuracy beyond 1 SNP per 3.2 cM (similar to 1850 markers), which is close to the linkage disequilibrium decay rate in this population. Collectively, our results suggest that larger germplasm collections may be efficiently sampled via lower-density genotyping methods, whereas genetic relationships between the training and validation populations remain critical when exploiting GS to select from germplasm collections.