The beginning of a decline in breast cancer incidence in Italy?

The incidence of invasive breast cancer in Turin, Italy, showed a statistically significant decrease during 1999-2003 overall (estimated annual percent change -2.6; 95% CL -8.52; -0.78) and in women aged over 50, similar to the recently documented trend in American data. This represents the first demonstration of a decline in breast cancer incidence in the early years of this decade outside the United States. In our population, the drop in the usage of hormone replacement therapy which occurred after 2002 is unlikely to be at the origin of this declining incidence trend, which is largely explained by a screening effect. This observation may be relevant to other geographical areas where organized or spontaneous screening reached a plateau after an increase in the preceding years.