First and second order approximate reliability analysis methods using evidence theory

被引：125

作者：

Zhang, Z. ^{[1
]}

Jiang, C. ^{[1
]}

Wang, G. G. ^{[2
]}

Han, X. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Hunan Univ, Coll Mech & Vehicle Engn, State Key Lab Adv Design & Mfg Vehicle Body, Changsha 410082, Hunan, Peoples R China

[2] Simon Fraser Univ, Sch Mechatron Syst Engn, Prod Design & Optimizat Lab, Surrey, BC V3T 0A3, Canada

来源：

RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY | 2015年 / 137卷

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

Structural reliability; Evidence theory; Epistemic uncertainty; Reliability interval; First order approximation; Second order approximation; STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY; SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS; EPISTEMIC UNCERTAINTY; PROBABILITY; PROPAGATION; MODEL;

D O I：

10.1016/j.ress.2014.12.011

中图分类号：

T [工业技术];

学科分类号：

08 ;

摘要：

The first order approximate reliability method (FARM) and second order approximate reliability method (SARM) are formulated based on evidence theory in this paper. The proposed methods can significantly improve the computational efficiency for evidence-theory-based reliability analysis, while generally provide sufficient precision. First, the most probable focal element (MPFE), an important concept as the most probable point (MPP) in probability-theory-based reliability analysis, is searched using a uniformity approach. Subsequently, FARM approximates the limit-state function around the MPFE using the linear Taylor series, while SARM approximates it using the quadratic Taylor series. With the first and second order approximations, the reliability interval composed of the belief measure and the plausibility measure is efficiently obtained for FARM and SARM, respectively. Two simple problems with explicit expressions and one engineering application of vehicle frontal impact are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：40 / 49

页数：10

共 40 条

[1] Uncertainty quantification using evidence theory in multidisciplinary design optimization [J].