Assessing the Frequency of Floods in Ice-Covered Rivers under a Changing Climate: Review of Methodology

被引:7
作者
Beltaos, Spyros [1 ]
机构
[1] Environm & Climate Change Canada, Watershed Hydrol & Ecol Res Div, Canada Ctr Inland Waters, 867 Lakeshore Rd, Burlington, ON L7S 1A1, Canada
关键词
breakup; climate change; ice; ice-jam flood; method; river; stage-frequency distribution; ATHABASCA RIVER; JAM FLOODS;
D O I
10.3390/geosciences11120514
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
Ice-influenced hydrologic and hydrodynamic processes often cause floods in cold regions of the globe. These floods are typically associated with ice jams and can have negative socio-economic impacts, while their impacts on riverine ecosystems can be both detrimental and beneficial. Several methods have been proposed for constructing frequency distributions of ice-influenced annual peak stages where historical data are scarce, or for estimating future frequencies under different climate change scenarios. Such methods rely on historical discharge data, which are generally easier to obtain than peak stages. Future discharges can be simulated via hydrological models, driven by climate-model output. Binary sequences of historical flood/no-flood occurrences have been studied using logistic regression on physics-based explanatory variables or exclusively weather-controlled proxies, bypassing the hydrological modelling step in climate change projections. Herein, background material on relevant river ice processes is presented first, followed by descriptions of various proposed methods to quantify flood risk and assess their advantages and disadvantages. Discharge-based methods are more rigorous; however, projections of future flood risk can benefit from improved hydrological simulations of winter and spring discharges. The more convenient proxy-based regressions may not adequately reflect the controlling physics-based variables, while extrapolation of regression results to altered climatic conditions entails further uncertainty.
引用
收藏
页数:19
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [21] Quantifying the health impacts of air pollution under a changing climate-a review of approaches and methodology
    Sujaritpong, Sarunya
    Dear, Keith
    Cope, Martin
    Walsh, Sean
    Kjellstrom, Tord
    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY, 2014, 58 (02) : 149 - 160
  • [22] Modelling the effectiveness of grass buffer strips in managing muddy floods under a changing climate
    Mullan, Donal
    Vandaele, Karel
    Boardman, John
    Meneely, John
    Crossley, Laura H.
    GEOMORPHOLOGY, 2016, 270 : 102 - 120
  • [23] Changing spring air-temperature gradients along large northern rivers: Implications for severity of river-ice floods
    Prowse, Terry
    Shrestha, Rajesh
    Bonsal, Barrie
    Dibike, Yonas
    GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2010, 37
  • [24] Assessing the impact of climate change and reservoir operation on the thermal and ice regime of mountain rivers using the XGBoost model and wavelet analysis
    Fuks, Maksymilian
    Kedra, Mariola
    Wiejaczka, Lukasz
    STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT, 2024, 38 (11) : 4275 - 4294
  • [25] Glacial Lakes in the Andes under a Changing Climate: A Review
    Veettil, Bijeesh Kozhikkodan
    Kamp, Ulrich
    JOURNAL OF EARTH SCIENCE, 2021, 32 (06) : 1575 - 1593
  • [27] Estimation of maximum scour depth around bridge piers under ice-covered conditions using data-driven methods
    Nezaratian, Hosein
    Hassanjabbar, Amin
    Wu, Peng
    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SEDIMENT RESEARCH, 2023, 38 (02) : 191 - 202
  • [28] Climate change impacts on magnitude and frequency of urban floods under scenario and model uncertainties
    Wang, Luyao
    Huang, Zhenyu
    Gan, Bin
    Zhang, Zhouping
    Fu, Haohuan
    Fang, Dengmao
    Dong, Runmin
    Liu, Yang
    Zhang, Weipeng
    Li, Ruyi
    Dong, Xin
    JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT, 2024, 366
  • [29] Assessing the influence of climate controls on grapevine biophysical responses: a review of Ontario viticulture in a changing climate
    Williamson, Jessica A.
    Petrone, Richard M.
    Valentini, Riccardo
    Macrae, Merrin L.
    Reynolds, Andrew
    CANADIAN JOURNAL OF PLANT SCIENCE, 2024, 104 (05) : 394 - 409
  • [30] Assessing the adequacy of current fisheries management under changing climate: a southern synopsis
    Plaganyi, Eva E.
    Weeks, Scarla J.
    Skewes, Tim D.
    Gibbs, Mark T.
    Poloczanska, Elvira S.
    Norman-Lopez, Ana
    Blamey, Laura K.
    Soares, Muri
    Robinson, William M. L.
    ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE, 2011, 68 (06) : 1305 - 1317