Rising trends in pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality in 2000-2014

Background: The morbidity and mortality of pancreatic cancer vary considerably around the world. The aim of this study was to characterize and evaluate recent changes in incidence and incidence-based mortality in the USA. Methods: Incidence and incidence-based mortality data were based on the 18 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registries through SEER*Stat software. We adopted joinpoint regression to analyze the temporal trends stratified by age, gender, ethnicity, stage, tumor site, and size. Results: Based on 18 SEER data sets, the age-adjusted incidence of pancreatic cancer increased from 11.85/100,000 in 2000 to 14.70/100,000 in 2014, increasing by an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 1.6 (95% CI 1.5-1.8, p<0.05). The incidence-based mortality also increased, from 9.96/100,000 in 2001 to 12.96/100,000 in 2014, increasing by an AAPC of 1.9 (95% CI 1.3-2.5, p<0.05). However, we observed a deceleration in mortality since 2005, with the annual percentage change decreasing from 4.1 (2001-2005) to 1.0 (2005-2014). These increasing trends in pancreatic cancer were observed in most subgroups (stratified by age, gender, ethnicity, stage, tumor site, and size). Conclusion: The incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in the USA have increased signi.cantly since 2000, highlighting the need for increased preventive, screening, and surveillance efforts.