Estimating the Transit Speed and Time of Arrival of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections Using CME and Solar Flare Data

被引：5

作者：

Belov, Anatoly ^{[1
]}

Shlyk, Nataly ^{[1
]}

Abunina, Maria ^{[1
]}

Abunin, Artem ^{[1
]}

Papaioannou, Athanasios ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Russian Acad Sci, Pushkov Inst Terr Magnetism Ionosphere & Radio Wa, IZMIRAN, Kaluzhskoe Hw 4, Moscow 108840, Russia

[2] Natl Observ Athens, Inst Astron Astrophys Space Applicat & Remote Sen, I Metaxa & Vas Pavlou St, Athens 15236, Greece

来源：

UNIVERSE | 2022年 / 8卷 / 06期

基金：

俄罗斯科学基金会;

关键词：

interplanetary coronal mass ejections; propagation; CMEs; interplanetary space; prediction of ICMEs; II RADIO-BURSTS; GEOMAGNETIC STORMS; EARTH;

D O I：

10.3390/universe8060327

中图分类号：

P1 [天文学];

学科分类号：

0704 ;

摘要：

The dependence of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections' (ICMEs) transit speed on the corresponding Coronal Mass Ejections' (CMEs) initial speed is investigated. It is shown that the transit speed and transit time depend not only on the CME's initial speed, but also on the longitude of the solar source. The longitudinal dependence of the expected transit speeds and times are obtained from the analysis of 288 CMEs, associated with solar flares, observed from 1995 to 2020. A model, estimating the transit and maximum speeds, as well as the time of arrival of an ICME to Earth, based on the initial CME speed and the longitude of the associated solar flare has been created. It is shown that taking into account the longitude of the solar source in addition to the initial CME speed significantly improves the quality of the model, especially for events in the central part of the solar disk (E10 degrees-W10 degrees). The simplicity of the described model makes it accessible to a wide range of users and provides opportunities for further improvement as the statistics and the number of input parameters increase.

引用

页数：15

共 57 条

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