A simple model to predict the complicated operative vaginal deliveries using vacuum or forceps

BACKGROUND: Complicated operative vaginal deliveries are associated with high neonatal morbidity and maternal trauma, especially if the procedure is unsuccessful and a cesarean delivery is needed. The decision to perform an operative vaginal delivery has traditionally been based on a subjective assessment by digital vaginal examination combined with the clinical expertise of the obstetrician. Currently there is no method for objectively quantifying the likelihood of successful delivery. Intrapartum ultrasound has been introduced in clinical practice to help predict the progression and final method of delivery. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to compare predictive models for identifying complicated operative vaginal deliveries (vacuum or forceps) based on intrapartum transperineal ultrasound in nulliparous women. STUDY DESIGN: We performed a prospective cohort study in nulliparous women at term with singleton pregnancies and full dilatation who underwent intrapartum transperineal ultrasound evaluation prior to operative vaginal delivery. Managing obstetricians were blinded to the ultrasound data. Intrapartum transperineal ultrasound (angle of progression, progression distance, and midline angle) was performed immediately before instrument application, both at rest and concurrently with pushing. Intrapartum evaluation of fetal biometric parameters (estimated fetal weight, head circumference, and biparietal diameter) was also carried out. An operative vaginal delivery was classified as complicated when 1 or more of the following complications occurred: >= 3 tractions needed; third- to fourth-degree perineal tear; severe bleeding during episiotomy repair (decrease of >= 2.5 g/dL in the hemoglobin level); or significant traumatic neonatal lesion (subdural-intracerebral hemorrhage, epicranial sub-aponeurotic hemorrhage, skeletal injuries, injuries to spine and spinal cord, or peripheral and cranial nerve injuries). Six predictive models were evaluated (information available in Table 2). RESULTS: We recruited 84 nulliparous patients, of whom 5 were excluded because of the difficulty of adequately evaluating the biparietal diameter and head circumference. A total of 79 nulliparous patients were studied (47 vacuum deliveries, 32 forceps deliveries) with 13 cases in the occiput-posterior position. We identified 31 cases of complicated operative vaginal deliveries (19 vacuum deliveries and 12 forceps deliveries). No differences were identified in obstetric, neonatal, or intrapartum characteristics between the 2 study groups (operative uncomplicated vaginal delivery vs operative complicated vaginal delivery), with the following exceptions: estimated fetal weight (3243 +/- 425 g vs 3565 +/- 330 g; P = .001), biparietal diameter (93.2 +/- 2.1 vs 95.2 +/- 2.3 mm; P = .001), head circumference (336 +/- 12 vs 348 +/- 6.4 mm; P = .001), sex (female 62.5% vs 29.0%; P = .010), newborn weight (3258 +/- 472 g vs 3499 +/- 383 g; P = .027), and number of tractions (median, interquartile range) (1 [1-2] vs 4 [3-5]; P < .0005). To predict complicated operative deliveries, all 6 of the studied models presented an area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve between 0.863 and 0.876 (95% confidence intervals, 0.775-0.950 and 0.790-0.963; P < .0005). The results of the study met the criteria of interpretability and parsimony (simplicity), allowing us to identify a binary logistic regression model based on the angle of progression and head circumference; this model has an area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve of 0.876 (95% confidence interval, 0.790-0.963; P < .0005) and a calibration slope B of 0.984 (95% confidence interval, 0.0.726-1.243; P < .0005). CONCLUSION: The combination of the angle of progression and the head circumference can predict 87% of complicated operative vaginal deliveries and can be performed in the delivery room.