Sun-to-Earth MHD Simulation of the 2000 July 14 "Bastille Day" Eruption

Solar eruptions are the main driver of space-weather disturbances at Earth. Extreme events are of particular interest, not only because of the scientific challenges they pose, but also because of their possible societal consequences. Here we present a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the 2000 July 14 "Bastille Day" eruption, which produced a very strong geomagnetic storm. After constructing a "thermodynamic" MHD model of the corona and solar wind, we insert a magnetically stable flux rope along the polarity inversion line of the eruption's source region and initiate the eruption by boundary flows. More than 10(33) erg of magnetic energy is released in the eruption within a few minutes, driving a flare, an extreme-ultraviolet wave, and a coronal mass ejection (CME) that travels in the outer corona at approximate to 1500 km s(-1), close to the observed speed. We then propagate the CME to Earth, using a heliospheric MHD code. Our simulation thus provides the opportunity to test how well in situ observations of extreme events are matched if the eruption is initiated from a stable magnetic equilibrium state. We find that the flux-rope center is very similar in character to the observed magnetic cloud, but arrives approximate to 8.5 hr later and approximate to 15 degrees. too far to the north, with field strengths that are too weak by a factor of approximate to 1.6. The front of the flux rope is highly distorted, exhibiting localized magnetic field concentrations as it passes 1 au. We discuss these properties with regard to the development of space-weather predictions based on MHD simulations of solar eruptions.