Local early warning systems for drought - Could they add value to nationally disseminated seasonal climate forecasts?

被引:39
作者
Andersson, Lotta [1 ]
Wilk, Julie [2 ]
Graham, L. Phil [1 ]
Wikner, Jacob [3 ]
Mokwatlo, Suzan [4 ]
Petja, Brilliant [5 ,6 ]
机构
[1] Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, Natl Ctr Climate Adaptat, SE-60176 Norrkoping, Sweden
[2] Linkoping Univ, Dept Themat Studies, Environm Change Unit, SE-58183 Linkoping, Sweden
[3] Linkoping Univ, Dept Elect Engn, SE-58183 Linkoping, Sweden
[4] Limpopo Dept Agr & Rural Dev, Res Directorate, Private Bag 9487, ZA-0700 Polokwane, Limpopo Provinc, South Africa
[5] Water Res Commiss, Pretoria, South Africa
[6] Univ Limpopo, Risk & Vulnerabil Sci Ctr, Turfloop, South Africa
关键词
Drought; Seasonal climate forecasts; Local EWS; Indigenous climate indicators; Resilience; ADAPTATION; ORGANIZATIONS; BOUNDARY; SCIENCE;
D O I
10.1016/j.wace.2019.100241
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
Limited application and use of forecast information restrict smallholder farmers' ability to deal with drought in proactive ways. This paper explores the barriers that impede use and uptake of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) in two pilot communities in Limpopo Province. Current interpretation, translation and mediation of national SCF to the local context is weak. A local early warning system (EWS) was developed that incorporated hydrological modelled information based on national SCF, locally monitored rainfall and soil moisture by a wireless sensor network, and signs from indigenous climate indicators. We assessed to what degree this local EWS could improve interpretation of SCF and increase understanding and uptake by farmers. Local extension staff and champion farmers were found to play important knowledge brokering roles that could be strengthened to increase trust of SCF. The local EWS provided added value to national SCF by involving community members in local monitoring, enacting knowledge interplay with indigenous knowledge and simplifying and tailoring SCF and hydrological information to the local context. It also helped farmers mentally prepare for upcoming conditions even if many do not currently have the adaptive mindsets, economic resources or pre-conditions to positively respond to SCF information.
引用
收藏
页数:12
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