Modelling drought and recovery in the southern Murray-Darling basin

被引：52

作者：

Wittwer, Glyn ^{[1
]}

Griffith, Marnie ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Monash Univ, Ctr Policy Studies, Clayton, Vic 3800, Australia

来源：

AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS | 2011年 / 55卷 / 03期

基金：

澳大利亚研究理事会;

关键词：

CGE modelling; drought; IMPACT;

D O I：

10.1111/j.1467-8489.2011.00541.x

中图分类号：

F3 [农业经济];

学科分类号：

0202 ; 020205 ; 1203 ;

摘要：

The prolonged drought from 2006-07 to 2008-09 in south-eastern Australia presented severe difficulties for dry-land and irrigation farmers in the southern Murray-Darling basin. A dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium model (TERM-H2O) is used to estimate the economy-wide small region impacts during and after drought. Drought reduces real GDP in some small regions by up to 20 per cent. Irrigation water trading and farm factor movements alleviate losses. The drought results in an estimated 6000 jobs being lost across the southern basin. Depressed farm investment during drought results in farm capital not returning to baseline levels after drought. Consequently, job numbers in 2017-18 remain 1500 below forecast in the southern basin.

引用

页码：342 / 359

页数：18